As long as we’re shut in with time on our hands, here is another installment of a sort of rolling diary to consider consequences of the virus. It’s true that with a virus that spreads exponentially, each day’s events seem like a week’s worth. Things we speculated a week ago now look naïve. Still, we can give it a go. Please add your thoughts.
Today is the first day of Thursday, 26 March, 2020:
• Something I’ve been wondering, once leaders of the western democracies see how easy it is to rule by fiat, for example summarily ordering their publics off the streets, how willing will they be to return to the status quo ante? Anne Applebaum writes about it way better than I can. James Holmes has a theory
“that demographic stress makes a society more like itself. In other words, it reinforces the society’s basic character. When trouble strikes, the society’s members reach for familiar ways of thinking, feeling, and acting. They respond in ways tested in, and seemingly verified by, past experience. Stress drives discourses about diplomacy and strategy toward extreme versions of these familiar ways, and action follows that trend.”
If he’s right, the next couple of years will speak volumes about European and North American leadership.
In addition to the growing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries in East Africa are battling the worst locust infestation in 70 years. Ideal breeding conditions in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia could enable locust populations to swell by a factor of 400, which could devastate crops across the region. The agricultural industry in East Africa accounts for approximately one-third of the gross domestic product and nearly two-thirds of jobs. The economic impact of the locust swarms has been compounded as restrictions are implemented by countries trying to contain COVID-19. Additionally, reduced trade demand from China could further compound economic losses, and it may be even more difficult for affected countries to identify supplemental trade partners as more national-level restrictions are implemented by countries around the world.
“The coronavirus will have geopolitical second- and third-order effects in countries such as Iran, Iraq, Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela, whose social peace relies on oil and gas, the prices of which have sharply declined, partially due to the coronavirus.”
“It does defy belief to imagine that many countries will take on the burden of renationalizing industry or, as (Zachary) Karabell puts it, “make trillions of dollars of global investment worthless.”
• An essay by Justin E. H. Smith in The Point titled It’s All Just Beginning makes the argument, if not the prediction, that the virus should bring the time of “wanton delectation” to an end:
“The pangolin cult of the Congolese Lele people, as described by the great social anthropologist Mary Douglas, both celebrates and fears the taxonomic peculiarities of this animal, which has scales, but gives live birth, and, like human beings, births only one offspring at a time. Do they kill it and eat it? Yes, they kill it and eat it, but they know that in so doing they are knocking the cosmos out of joint, and the only way to bring it back into joint is through a fair amount of ritual catharsis. Walter Burkert points out that in ancient Greece there was no meat sold in the public market that was not ritually sacrificed: a recognition that to spill an animal’s blood is a violent and transgressive thing, and even if we must do it, we must not allow it to become profane, banal, unexceptional. Such a view lives on vestigially in the halal and kosher rules of slaughter of familiar Abrahamic faiths, but for the most part the metaphysics of meat, like the metaphysics of viruses, remains the same as it was in 1918 and indeed for some centuries before: exotic or domestic, endangered or commonplace, an animal’s meat is ours to be eaten, for we are the lords of this planet. I am not saying the current pandemic is retribution for our sin, but I will say that the Lele understood something about the pangolin that we have not, and that we are paying dearly for now: that it cannot be lightly killed for no better reason than our own delectation. That era—the era of wanton delectation—is over now, I hope, for those who had been taken in by the reckless culinary adventurism of an Anthony Bourdain as much as for the customers of the wet-markets of Wuhan.”
Take care. Wash your hands.